There is a fair bit of uncertainty regarding the upcoming Jacksonville Armada season. Questions abound such as  “Where will the team play?”, (almost certainly not its home for its first two seasons, Community First Park, AKA the Baseball Grounds of Jacksonville), “Who will be in goal? (the team does not have any goal-keepers under contract at this time), and so on.

One thing that is certain is the nature of the season. On January 20, the North American Soccer League announced that 2017 league play will consist of eight teams will play sixteen games in both a spring season and a fall season.  After thinking about it for a moment, my reaction was similar to that of Florida Times-Union write Clayton Freeman.

 

Reaction on Twitter from supporters of NASL teams featured a bit of puzzlement, as well. While many were happy that the league’s previous practice of having a spring season that was half the length of the fall season (but whose titles counted equally) was a thing of the past, there was doubt over why the schedule wasn’t balanced. Why not just have 8 teams playing their opponents twice each season such that there would be two 14 game seasons? It seemed so odd to me that I almost seriously wondered if someone made a “fencepost error” and mis-calculated the number of games that would make up a balanced schedule.

The acting commissioner of the league, Rishi Sehgal, has answered the question in a consistent fashion during interviews. This, for example, is from Sehgal’s interview with Raleigh based writer Neil Morris

“Primarily because we wanted to give more games back to the fans. It was a long off-season without soccer, and the desire was to create more excitement about the competition rather than create a short season. I’ve read rumors out there that we had penciled in other teams to play and then canceled them. That speculation is just speculation. The decision was made to have as many games as possible and focus on the competition.”

There is something about adding “bonus” games in this manner that has bothered me. There are 32 weekends from the season-opening weekend to the weekend before the playoffs start (March 25-October 28).  In the past, and Sehgal suggests that this will be the case in 2017 as well, there is a break between the two seasons. That means that there aren’t enough on which to play games. Some games will be played mid-week.

As an Armada fan, this concerned me, because there was a noticeable difference between attendance for the weekend matches and weekday matches last season. I mentioned this to Clayton Freeman on Twitter and he helpfully replied with the stats:

Admittedly, the drop of 43% wasn’t quite as bad as it seemed. One could argue that the number attendance dropped from was at least as problematic as the drop itself. That is, dropping 43% from a weekend of average of 8,000 isn’t that bad. When you’re only getting 4,000 fans on the weekends, though, the result is games that are money-losers. (Playing in an active baseball stadium, the Armada paid a city subsidized, yet still hefty fee, for converting the baseball field to a soccer pitch; Empire of Soccer cited a cost of $70,00 per match)

Being curious as to whether such drops were common across the league, or a problem unique to Jacksonville, I compiled the numbers for the past two seasons across the league. The figures are pretty interesting.

In 2015, eleven teams played each-other once in the Spring and  twice in the Fall. That meant for five home games in the spring and ten in the fall.  During the fall, most teams played two home games mid-week, while Atlanta played three and Edmonton, Indy, and Tampa Bay played only one. The following table shows each team’s average weekend attendance, weekday attendance, and the percentage difference between the two.

 

Atlanta 4294 2947 -31%
Edmonton 2872 3120 8.6%
FTL 4858 1955 -59%
Indy 9956 8500 -14%
Jacksonville 8261 5760 -30%
Minnesota 884. 8275 -6%
NY 5314 3522 -33%
NC 4728 3307 -30%
Ottawa 5228 4751 -9%
San Antonio 7036 4509 -36%
TB 5619 4691 -16%

 

A few of these numbers are skewed a little bit. Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, and New York all had season openers with attendance that was out-sized compared to the rest of the season. Adjusting those towards normal attendance improves the drop by 5% or so for each team.  Un-adjusted, the league-wide figure suggests an average attendance drop of 25% from weekend to mid-week.

As one can see, not everyone was hurt by mid-week games; the 3,120 at Edmonton’s compared favorably to some weekend games that had 2,000 or fewer fans in attendance. Similarly, neither Ottawa’s or Minnesota’s games ranked atop the list of most lightly attended home matches. Elsewhere, however, the attendance drops were significant.

In 2016, the Spring season consisted of eleven teams (but not the same eleven as in 2015, since Miami and Oklahoma City replaced Atlanta and San Antonio) playing each-other once. Puerto Rico joined in the Fall season to make its season twelve teams playing each-other twice.  This made for five home games in the Spring and eleven in the Fall. Jacksonville played one home one-game mid-week in the spring; the only team to do so. Jacksonville played four mid-week games at home during the Fall; again this was exceptional as all other teams played only two home games mid-week. (One of those mid-week Jacksonville games was not scheduled as such; Hurricane Matthew pushed a would-be weekend match against Indy into the week.) As was the case in 2016, some teams, particularly the southern ones, took significant attendance hits during the week.

Edmonton 2092 1836 -12%
FTL 1484 437 -71%
Indy 8585 7075 -17%
Jacksonville 4055 2278 -44%
Miami 5259 4854 -8%
Minnesota 8775 7154 -18%
NYC 3829 3402 -11%
NC 5323 3201 -40%
OKC 3209 3472 8%
Ottawa 5591 4700 -16%
PR 4350 1329 -69%
TB 5992 5076 -15%

The figure for Fort Lauderdale is not a typo; they only had 873 fans total at their two mid-week matches. The crowd for Puerto Rico’s  mid-week games were roughly half the size of that for their most lightly attended weekend match.  As was the case in 2015, Jacksonville and Carolina had big drops in attendance for mid-week games.  The drop for the Cosmos wasn’t as bad… but the figure for weekend-games was worse than in 2015.  Edmonton,Indy, and Tampa managed to keep the gap reasonably small.  The figures for Miami and OKC are a bit wonky. Miami had some games with horrible attendance in the Spring.  OKC managed to have their mid-week games before the franchise started to fall apart. Otherwise, their numbers would have likely been comparable to Fort Lauderdale’s.

Pardon a slight digression as I elaborate on the Armada. As mentioned earlier, Jacksonville played in an active baseball stadium; their home schedule was dictated by the home schedule of the AA baseball team.  As home-stands that wrap around two weekends are not uncommon, the Armada were left with some tight windows for home games, hence the excess number of mid-week games.  Cruelly, those were the games most poorly attended. The crowd for the mid-week Spring game was ~500 fewer than the lowest attended weekend game. Of the four Fall games, only one had higher attendance than the lowest week-end game (that week-end game had 2,516 fans in attendance; it was played on a scorching afternoon in advance of a Jaguars pre-season game). Weather was not a factor for the depressed attendance. In 2015 the only games affected by weather were the season opener (15 minute downpour in the second half) and a Saturday night game that was delayed by lightning. Similarly in 2016, the only games with unpleasant weather were during the weekend. The only mid-week game that had understandable poor attendance was the rescheduled Indy Eleven match; there were still Jacksonville residents without power on the night of that match.

League-wide, I calculated the 2016 drop in attendance from weekend to weekday games to be 27%, nearly identical to the drop observed in 2015. The drop isn’t so big to suggest that the average fan does not go to mid-week games. It is certainly large enough, however, to suggest that adding games to the schedule yields diminishing returns if the games in question are going to be played mid-week. A 28 game schedule fits into the given March 25-October 28 window fairly nicely; 14 week-end games each season and each team gets a week off as well as a two week break between seasons. Fitting a 32 game schedule into that window with a a an equal amount of rest means that each team would have to host two mid-week games each season.

If franchises are going to be on the hook for that many mid-week games, it appears that some will have to put some serious focus on how to make those games better attended. It certainly appears that Tampa did something that the other southern teams didn’t.

The other puzzler with the unbalanced schedule is how it’s going to work. It would be more evident if the teams were more evenly distributed geographically and everyone had a local rival. Under those conditions, it would make sense for the extra games to be merely just an extra home and away game against the rivals. Alas, the 2017 NASL is not like that.  Here’s my best effort of making the unbalanced 32 game schedule work in a cost-efficient manner :

  • Each team plays each-other home and away twice
  • Puerto Rico, Miami, and Jacksonville play each-other home and away an extra time.
  • Indy, New York, and North Carolina do the same.
  • San Francisco and Edmonton: Y’all are going to love to hate each-other!  Two extra matches, home and away!

This, of course, could make things a wreck balance of competition-wise. From a competition stand-point, the only fair way to do it would be to assign the extra games pseudo-randomly.  As a few have noted though, that could bring delights such as Puerto Rico making extra trips to Edmonton and San Franciso, etc. Adding those extra trips, for any team, doesn’t make sense.

Furthermore, it doesn’t make sense to  have extra games that one can reasonably expect to have reduced attendance. As a season-ticket holder who is concerned about the feature of his team and its league, I am not in support of this unbalanced schedule as it has been presented.

 

 

 

 

Books for Christmas

December 15, 2016

Nobody asked me, but here’s five recommendations for the avid reader on your list:

 

  • Liar’s Poker – Michael Lewis
    • I figured I would start strong. If this isn’t my favorite book as an adult, it’s definitely on the short list.  It is humorous, entertaining, and enlightening. There is just so much to get out of it:
      • A story of a guy’s first job out of college
      • A story of 1980’s Wall Street
      • A story about a company losing it’s culture as it rapidly expands.
      • A story demonstrating how investment banks initially made mortgages an item of speculation.
      • The book that established Michael Lewis’ career as a writer. (I saw Michael Lewis speak once and he mentioned a former high-school classmate (maybe Sean Tuohy) saying that the classmate remembered him as the doofus in the back row and couldn’t for the life of him figure out how Lewis managed to become a respected writer).
  • Under the Wire – William Ash and Brendan Foley
    • The story of a Texan who went to Canada to join the Royal Air Force in 1940 is action packed and worthy of a movie. After getting shot down and eventually captured by the Gestapo, Ash became a serial escape artist and rubbed elbows with many of the legends of World War II prisoner of war camp escapes.
  • Fever Pitch – Nick Hornby
    • Given how many soccer related books I’ve read in the past couple of years, there was nil chance of one not getting onto this list. The acclaimed novelist wrote about his life-long obsession with Arsenal Football Club.  Perfectly readable if you’re not a soccer fan, it is equally so if you are. Among other things, it captures a long period of top-level English football just before its scene changed dramatically.

 

My Soccer Life

December 13, 2016

Having spit out a few thousand words about the Armada, I felt obliged to let everyone know where I’m coming from as a soccer fan. I think I’m a little bit of an oddball as I have never played the game in any organized fashion other than  junior high/high school Physical Education class.  LikI ae most of what I’ve written on this blog, this is an exercise for myself; I certainly don’t expect anyone to be interested in every last detail of what I put out here.

I am the son of a (now retired) Navy officer.  As you will see, I moved around a bit.

My first memories as a child come from living in Jacksonville, in the early 1980’s. I have no memory of the Jacksonville Teamen, who played in the original North American Soccer League after moving from Boston and subsequently played in the American Soccer League and United Soccer League before shutting down. Given how young I was, I guess it isn’t surprising that I’ve no memory of the Teamen, but I do have ever so vague memories of the Jacksonville Bulls of the USFL.

We moved from Jacksonville to southern Maryland. I have one distinct memory of kicking around a soccer ball with my best friend next-door. The organized sport we participated in was tee-ball, though. If soccer was being played in our area (and I suppose it was), it was completely off our radar.

Things were a little bit different after the family’s next move. When I arrived there, Stephen Decatur Elementary School, which served the children of Navy Air Station Sigonella (Sicily), did not have any playground equipment for third graders.  There was a black-top, though and every recess, it played host to the most chaotic, direct, soccer ever played by Americans, I reckon.  I remember participating in it from time to time, but never becoming a determined participant in it. About half-way through 4th grade, basketball hoops were added and I stuck to that.

While I believe there was organized soccer offered on-base, we lived off-base, about an hour away (outside of the town of Nicolosi).  I distinctly remember a conversation with our landlord’s son, Marco (a teen-ager) who schooled me a little bit about soccer. He made sure that I knew who the greatest player alive was (which I knew) that the greatest player in the sport at that time was Diego Maradona (which I didn’t know).  My parents had a television for picking up Italian stations. I don’t think I ever watched or happened upon a game during that time, oddly enough (as opposed to memories of watching the Seoul Olympics via that medium; due to the time differences between Korea and US compounded by the lag in broadcasts on AFN at that time, watching the games in English were not preferred).

I did, though, watch soccer, in Italian, on television when we lived in Pennsylvania.  Our cable package included a random New York City Station that on Sunday mornings,  had RAI’s  Serie A game broadcast. I couldn’t tell you which games I saw or who I saw play, but I do remember watching a few of those broadcasts. I only found out recently that the Italian government paid television stations in “Italian” US markets to broadcast the games. That combined with the chance of having the particular New York station on our cable is what made my experience possible.

There was plenty of organized soccer going on where I lived in Bucks County, but I never participated in it. Despite enjoying (and seemingly being at least a little bit skilled) playing in gym class, I never had any interest. The only sport I played in school was basketball, in seventh grade. I must admit that I now do imagine an alternate path in my life where I actually played organized soccer ( to go with all of the time I played keepy-upy and did make-shift footwork drills).  Oh well.

From Pennsylvania, I went to Brunswick, Maine. The high school was a bit of a state power in the sport. I remember my mom, sister, and I going to the 1992 Class A State championship in which Brunswick was soundly beaten. It was an absolutely freezing morning (I don’t remember for certain how cold it was now, probably mid 20s; these days we like to recall it as being negative 50) the chill compounded by sitting on steel bleachers.  We left after my school fell behind by three goals and decamped to a K-Mart where we promptly took in some hot chocolate.

I was a high-schooler living in Chesapeake, Virginia during the 1994 World Cup and watched most of the games. Was crushed by Italy’s defeat in the finals.

Having been a fan of most of the DC based sports teams, I was nominally a fan of DC United when MLS was formed. With little coverage in the paper and not many opportunities to see them on television, I didn’t become attached to them, though.

I did, though, go to my first soccer game during this time though. I ventured out to First Colonial High School to watch the Hampton Roads Hurricanes of the USISL play. I got a t-shirt, which survived a few moves, but I believe ultimately got thrown out, alas. I also remember getting a set of team cards (and getting one signed by the goal-scorer that night); I’ll have to try to find those.

My family returned to Jacksonville after my father’s retirement from the Navy. I was working during the 1998 World Cup and listened to many games via Spanish language radio (and actually watched a few games with the sound muted and the radio on).

I apparently had no awareness that there was a soccer team in Jacksonville at the time (the Cyclones of the A-League). That means that I missed the day Leicester came to town. I also somehow missed the US Men coming to Jacksonville, when they beat Germany 3-0. That was four days before I shipped out for boot camp, so I guess that’s somewhat understandable.

I was in A-School in Pensacola during the 1999 Women’s World Cup. The final was a big deal and the common area of my barracks room was packed with guys watching the game.

The 2002 World Cup found me in the Med, on deployment. I was scarcely aware it was going on. Somewhat similarly, I was away from home for the better part of the 2006 World Cup and in a hotel room whose television didn’t have ESPN2 (!). I didn’t see much of the 2010 World Cup, either.

I did see the key games for the US down the stretch of the 2011 Women’s World Cup. The game against Brazil is one of my all time favorites of any sport. I was subsequently locked in for all of the team’s games in the 2012 Olympics.

By this point, of course, I was becoming re-acquainted with the game. Sara and I saw the US Men play Scotland at Everbank Field in May 2012. She also made it out to see the US Women play the following year (I had a scheduling conflict, much to my disappointment).

Due to Formula One, I was already a viewer of NBC Sports when they won the Premier League contract. I watched the early games with some interest, nominally a fan of Fulham (due to Shad Khan’s ownership of the team). They never took with me though, and they were, of course, relegated during that year anyhow. I did, however, become captivated by “You’ll Never Walk Alone” and subsequently became a Liverpool supporter. The Premier League has since become a part of my weekend routine (and Everton-Arsenal are on my television as I type this).

As mentioned in my first post about the Armada, I got season tickets not long after the details of the team were settled. I made it out to a couple of the World Cup Watch parties (at The Landing for the Ghana match and the now gone Nippers for the crushing Portugal match). I’d been pretty ignorant of what had been going on in professional soccer in the United States since the formation (and early struggles) of MLS, but I started to become acquainted with the scene.

As one may have figured by my mentions of the Women’s World Cup, I enjoy women’s soccer. I have been to (almost) all of the University of North Florida matches I’ve been able to attend during the last three years. I also trekked out to Tallahassee and cheered with the Renegades for a couple of games in 2014 (I wasn’t able to make the trip to Boca to see FSU win the title, alas).  I also centered a 2015 trip to Blacksburg around a Virginia Tech-Florida State match. Sara and I made the trip to Orlando to see the Pride’s debut in the NWSL (we have talked about, but never actually followed through, on going to an Orlando City MLS game). I finally got to see the US women in person when I traveled to Tampa to see the She Believes matches between France, Germany, England,and the United States earlier this year.

To finish out the list of games we’ve been to… Sara and I were at the Fulham-DC United friendly at Everbank last year (which was followed by a Carrie Underwood performance and the debut of the new video boards). I went to the Florida Cup games at Everbank (Koln, Fluminese, Bayer Leverkusen, and Corinthians).

So, I sit here a devoted fan of Liverpool from afar (Sara is a somewhat less devoted Everton fan; she was a fan of Cardiff, who were relegated the same time Fulham was. We do keep track of the team’s performances in the Championship with a bit of ado for the Fulham-Cardiff matches) and of Armada FC at home. I don’t have an MLS team and here’s hoping that (short of the Armada eventually joining that league) I never will.

 

 

 

In my post yesterday, I neglected to  mention one of the high points of my Armada experience last season:The team hosting and winning a US Open Cup match, which set up a game against visiting Major League Soccer side Orlando City. Played in the immediate wake of the Pulse Nightclub shooting, with a healthy amount of traveling supporters, it was a great evening of togetherness.  On the field, the Armada put up a good fight, and held the scoreline even for an hour before conceding the winning goal. A good night of action on the field and a great night in the stands. It was a night enjoyed by only 2,055 fans, alas.

A scarf that was a give-away on the Armada's Pride Night, roughly one month before the Orlando City match. In the wake of the Pulse nightclub shootings, Armada fans who managed to snag one of these (plus one of the limited number of tickets to the match) wore it to the game. After the match, an Orlando City fan offered to trade his scarf for this one; an offer I selfishly declined.

A scarf that was a give-away on the Armada’s Pride Night, roughly one month before the Orlando City match. In the wake of the Pulse nightclub shootings, Armada fans who managed to snag one of these (plus one of the limited number of tickets to the match) wore it to the game. After the match, an Orlando City fan offered to trade his scarf for this one; an offer I selfishly declined.

Allow me a slight digression as I review what lead to that night (I feel obliged to point these matters out and regret not having done so at some earlier point).  The US Open Cup is a tournament for all of the soccer teams in the United States. It starts with amateur teams and those of the lowest levels of professional soccer. As it progresses, teams from the top three levels of professional soccer (the United Soccer League, the Armada’s North American Soccer League, and MLS). Supporters of non-MLS teams dream of their team slaying giants and accumulating upsets against the teams from the league’s higher up the ladder than their own.

Armada fans did not come close to realizing that dream last year. Fielding a mostly second-string team, the Armada traveled to USL side Richmond Kickers and got stomped 3-0 (trust me, the scoreline does not come close to capturing how awful the game was for Jacksonville).  It’s not clear whether the manager thought the second stringers would be enough to compete against lower level competition of he just didn’t care and was perfectly content to fall out of the tournament immediately.  It was disappointing for fans though, as an Armada victory would have brought an MLS squad to town for the next round.

The memory stuck. During the Town Hall Forum with then newly hired coach Tony Meola, a fan inquired as to whether Meola would take the tournament seriously. The coach pledged to do so and in marked contrast with that of his predecessor, the line-up showed it. The Armada defeated a pesky Charleston Battery squad with a thrilling goal in extra time.  As was the case in the previous season, fans and team knew that a victory in the opener would give the Armada the opportunity to host an MLS team. Having gotten the job done this time, the team got to host Orlando City.

So, we had one of the big boys coming to town. A chance for an upset against a team from the big league. A team close enough to Jacksonville for its supports to easily travel for the game, even with it being on a Wednesday night. This had all of the makings of a big event. And yet, there was no chance for it to be.

The current home of the Armada is the Baseball Grounds of Jacksonville (re-branded as Community First Park on Armada game-days). The primary tenant, of course, is the baseball team, AA side Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (formerly the Suns).  As such, the soccer team’s scheduled home games are squeezed in-between the lengthy home-stands of the baseball team. Such an arrangement is not conducive for holding relatively “on-the-fly” events such as US Open Cup matches. Because of that, the matches were held at Jacksonville’s Southern Oak Stadium, an attractive, yet tiny facility. And that’s how there came to be only 2,055 fans to take in a night that ought to have been taken in 3-4 times as many, at least. The stadium situation is certainly one of the challenges for the Armada organization, going forward.

The current home, itself, is quite nice. It’s a stadium for a AA baseball team that was built to AAA standards. It is very well equipped in terms of concessions and is a pleasant place in which to watch a match. I haven’t been to any of the other stadiums belonging to NASL teams, but it does seem to be one of the nicer ones. It isn’t the only baseball stadium either, Tampa Bay (who has now departed the league, alas) plays in a converted baseball stadium as does Puerto Rico FC. The Armada isn’t the only team that has a home that isn’t quite its own, either as a few teams play on university grounds (ones significantly larger than that of Jacksonville University, one should note).

That said, it does seem to be a limitation for the growth and development of the team. Besides the issue of the primary tenant restricting availability of the stadium, its downtown location causes other events to affect the Armada’s games as well. A would-be Saturday night match against Minnesota United became a mid-afternoon match due to the Jaguars having a pre-season game on that night. The result was a match played lethargically in brutally hot conditions (the Armada supporters group Section 904 decamped from their usual haunt behind the east goal to the southwest corner of the pitch, located somewhat more comfortably in the shade.

Armada owner Mark Frisch made public remarks that playing at the Baseball Grounds would be a three year deal with the end goal being the Armada having a home of its own sometime after that. I’ve heard second-hand that in private remarks he’s said that he would want to have a consistent base of at least 5,000 fans before considering such a venture. While things were looking good for that to happen in the first year, things have since gone awry.

The Armada’s season ticket renewal campaign apparently went as well as the campaign of the Spanish Armada. The failure was apparently part of the reason for the firing of club president Mark Livingstone in early February. While the books show 8,147 fans attending the team’s 2015 opener at Community First Park (the season opener was at EverBank Field), they indicate only 5,112 in attendance for the 2016 opener. The same records show the 2015 low point for attendance being 5,652; 2016 did not have a high point that high.

A brief aside at this point. I will elaborate in a future post, but I am a fairly long-time soccer fan, but one who only re-immersed himself into the game a few years ago, with the  2014 World Cup and NBC Sports winning the Premier League contract being major factors. My earlier fandom was fairly shallow and I’ve come to realize that there were a lot of things that I didn’t know back then. The point of mentioning this is that there’s a lot of things going on that have a back-story longer than I’ve been closely following the game. I’ve done a fair bit of reading to fill in my (massive) knowledge gaps, but I will freely admit there are matters for which others will have (much) more informed opinions (such as judging the quality of play in the NASL).

The author has read a little bit about soccer doing the past two years.

The author has read a little bit about soccer doing the past two years.

 

The $64 question, whose answer I do not come remotely close to knowing, is the nature of the fans who attended games in the Armada’s debut season but did not show up in the second season.  Let us consider a few possibilities:

  • Devoted soccer fans who are fans of the game, but do not feel a need to be attached to their local team.  They might have found a little bit to like in the game-day experience, but didn’t find anything attractive to watch on the field. This is not a problem restricted to lower-level teams in the United States; it is a bit of a global issue. As the highest levels of play have become more accessible on television, some fans have gotten so accustomed to watching the high level of play that they cannot stand to watch anything that’s even a little bit lower. That is a tough fight for any team outside of the highest tiers football, one that is a bit of a fight for even Major League Soccer.
  • More casual fans of soccer, maybe even people who are mostly unfamiliar with the game. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, the team last year had a brutal stretch of scoreless play. On the field, there wasn’t much in the way of excitement to draw in and keep the uncommitted fan. Too many times, the games appeared to confirm the worst stereotypes of soccer.
  • Folks who fell somewhere in between who took spent their money elsewhere. It would be wholly unsurprising to find many took their money across the street (to EverBank Field) as there were wide expectations that this was going to be the break-out season for the Jaguars.

Of course, none of these possibilities are exclusive of one another. Without knowing the nature of those disappearing fans, though, it is a nearly impossible task to suggest a course of action for the Armada to get them back and solve this worrisome issue. There was a stretch during the late part of this season where attendance was clearly at a negative tipping point. When you have fewer than 3,000 people in a stadium that has a  capacity three times greater, the atmosphere suffers, regardless of how lively the attending fans are. The Armada tried gamely to entice fans with various special ticket promotions; one fears that it started to verge on desperation and started to give an air to the public that the tickets couldn’t be given away.

Complicating matters for the Armada is the future of their league. Major League Soccer in one fashion or another (either by directly bringing in a NASL team or announcing a franchise in a NASL market) has severely squeezed the league from the top. Below, a few teams have recently fled NASL to USL. Throw in a couple of teams on financially shaky ground and the league is looking at having fewer than 8 teams playing next season. While the original NASL survived dropping to 5 teams before its growth in the 1970’s the landscape is completely different today and a repeat is unlikely.

To a great extent the issue of leagues is a conflict of visions. MLS has a distinctly American sports approach including looking to ultimately have the same number of teams as the NFL, et al. It appears that the USL is becoming subsumed as a minor league (in the sense of minor league baseball) counterpart to MLS.  The NASL has tried a different approach, something closer to European soccer norms than American sports. For a number of reasons, I have found myself disliking the MLS outlook and preferring that of the NASL. It appears, though, that this battle is all but lost.

It now seems that the Armada’s immediate will be predicated on joining the USL. I hope that they do so without becoming a minor-league affiliate (I admit gross ignorance on the nature of the league; from my limited knowledge, I find it odd to have a league have both independent squads and ones that are developmental/reserve squads for MLS teams).

I will conclude with one final bit from the Orlando City match. Before the game, I was participated in a radio interview with a reporter who noticed my pride scarf. During the interview, I mentioned the Armada organization being a solid member of the Jacksonville community and one  that I was proud to support. That remains true today and it is why I have felt compelled to write this post as well as yesterday’s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A struggling Jacksonville team whose owner remains popular with fans as it faces hard questions about the future is an apt description of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is also true of Jacksonville Armada FC.

A successful early start upon the team’s debut last season, both on and off the field,  faded as the months passed by. A three game scoring drought in July was followed by another one in September, which resulted in the manager’s firing.  After finished the season under interim management, the team brought on former US National Team goalkeeper Tony Meola for the 2016 season.

As in the previous season, scoring droughts would weigh heavily on the Armada;464 scoreless minutes from late April to late May and one almost identical in July. The latter drought was broken in the midst of a Wednesday night 5-2 stomping that likely was the end for Meola (who coached one more game on the immediately following Saturday night before being sacked).

Another interim manager came aboard and he got results immediately.  After failing in its first 25 attempts, the team finally won a game on the road (against Ottawa on August 13).  A second road win came on October 1.  Home fans had to subsist on the thin gruel of draws during this time, however, with three of those being scoreless.

After a wild and admittedly entertaining (in a gladiator/professional wrestling sort of way) loss to the New York Cosmos, the home fans finally got to applaud a win for the new coach, English-man Mark Lowry, who had shed the interim tag in early October. The season finished with a second home win for the Armada.

I have been with the team through all of this as a season-ticket owner. This is not the first time I’ve held season tickets for a Jacksonville team. Out of respect for how the Arena Football League re-organized itself, I purchased season tickets for the Jacksonville Sharks when they were first formed and held them for another season, when they won the Arena Bowl.  Having been a fan of the Jaguars, but not necessarily one of Jack Del Rio or the franchise as it was being run under Wayne Weaver, I snapped up season tickets after the simultaneous departure of the coach and the arrival of the new owner (and availed myself of the option to lock in ticket prices for three years by committing to hold season tickets for that time period).

I bought my tickets fairly early on in the franchise; if I recall correctly it was within a few weeks after of the team name being announced in February of 2014. As I did with the Jaguars, I did so on a three year deal. My sister, Sara, is in the deal with me; at one point I think she was more excited about the venture than I was. At one point randomly during the World Cup, she said with a great deal of happiness “I am so glad we are going to have a soccer team to watch next year”.

All in all, low number of wins not withstanding, we have loved the experience. There hasn’t been a day where we’ve felt like going to the game was a chore vice a pleasant outing. Similarly, we have never departed a game with the feeling that we had a bad experience, again on-the field results notwithstanding.  I am, of course, my season tickets for next year were already locked in. Even if they weren’t, though, my Sara I would have happily re-upped. We love Mark Lowry and it appears that the Armada are holding onto a nice core of players for next year. (At one point towards the end of Tony Meola’s tenure, it wasn’t uncommon to hear the fans around us complaining that they didn’t know any of the players on the field; all of their favorites were on the bench, seemingly without reason).

That said, our fan experience suffered a bit down the stretch. It was news, but not a surprise to read the following, written by Clayton Freeman in the Times-Union two days ago (“NASL’s struggles could mean changes for Armada in 2017“):

Sharp cutbacks took effect in August and September, when the Armada scaled back its game-day expenditures at the Baseball Grounds, stopped sending public relations employees for road games and slashed its budget for support staff.

The team was on the road from August 19th to September 24th.  From that first game back, onward, there was a noticeable difference at the stadium. There were fewer people working the gates (making for a longer wait to enter the stadium) and a lack of attention to detail that wasn’t absent previously.  For example, nearly all games featured some kind of give-away (usually a sponsor-backed scarf) to the first 1,000 fans through the gates. On one late-season occasion, we found 0 of the scarfs to be had when we came through the gate as it opened.  After looking and waiting a couple of minutes, Sara hustled over to the main gate and managed to scrounge two scarves and alert staff to the fact that there weren’t any at the side-gate.  On Fan Appreciation Day, $2 corndogs were advertised, but concession staff apparently hadn’t gotten the news; after going around the various stands in the stadium, Sara took to Twitter in frustration (and it was through that medium that she was assisted by the owner of the then Jacksonville Suns).

 

The author and his companion at Dogtoberfest - An event that didn't get much in the way of promotion ahead of time.

The author and his companion at Dogtoberfest – An event that didn’t get much in the way of promotion ahead of time.

As Freeman mentions in his article, attendance was not high this season.  I am obligated though, to note that while it is true that”At the lowest point, the Armada drew just 1,254 on Oct. 12 against the Indy Eleven.”, that game was a Wednesday night game that was a reschedule of a game that was originally scheduled for the preceding Saturday night and delayed due to Hurricane Matthew.  Just over 3,000 fans were in attendance for the aforementioned  lively match against the Cosmos on the following Saturday. Over 4,500 attended the Season finale.  It was a bit sad to have the season come to an end at that point, what with the team finally doing well and having a decent crowd to boot.

Unlike the previous ends of season (in the North American Soccer League, there are “Spring” & “Fall” seasons, I did not receive a Fan Experience survey.  The remarks I have made hear about the late-season game-day experience would have been the meat of my substantive response (i..e  written comments beyond the numerical ratings of how satisfied I was).

As featured in Freeman’s article, the Armada’s owner Mark Frisch has big challenges in front of him.  I’ll reflect on those in a later post.

 

 

 

 

 

Yesterday marked the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and per custom, the National Hurricane Center posted their first  Tropical Weather Outlook with the list of names that will be used this season along with their pronunciations.  It has been my custom to provide a history of these names to suggest why a name may sound familiar and to show where the unfamiliar names came from.

This year’s list was first used in 1984.  Nine original names have been retired, which is the second-most retired from the six lists.  As is the case for half of the lists, the name beginning with the letter I has been replaced twice. There are five  names original to the list which have not yet been used and three are new for 2014.

Arthur – Each time this name was used, it was in association with a tropical storm that did not become a hurricane.  The 1984 edition was a weak tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles. The 1990 version was stronger and crossed into the Caribbean.  In 1996, the storm named Arthur made landfall in North Carolina before curving back to sea. In 2002, the cyclone formed east of North Carolina and headed to Newfoundland. The 2008 version formed from the remnants of Pacific Tropical Storm Arthur (a scenario which is in play at this moment in 2014) and made landfall in Belize.

Bertha – For Americans, this might be the most notorious name on the list.  While the 1984 edition was a weak tropical storm at sea, 1990‘s Bertha was a category one hurricane that made landfall in Nova Scotia. In 1996, it was a major hurricane that made landfall in North Carolina as a category one (Particularly memorable for me as my father and I drove around the periphery of it post-landfall as we traveled from Tallahassee to Chesapeake, VA. A downed limb on US 17, east of the Great Dismal Swamp, caused a tire blow-out and quite the soaking for us when we changed the tire in the dark.) 2002‘s Bertha was a weak tropical storm that made landfall in southeast Louisiana while the 2008 iteration was the longest-lived and eastern-most forming July tropical cyclone on record.

Big Bertha

Big Bertha

Cristobal – Replaced Cesar after 1996.  The 2002 edition was a weak tropical storm at sea, while 2008‘s formed east of North Carolina and traveled northeast.

Dolly – Replaced Diana after 1990. The inaugural edition made landfall in Mexico as a category 1 hurricane in 1996. In 2002, it was a  tropical storm at sea, while in 2008 it was a landfalling hurricane once again; this time on the Yucatan Peninsula and  south Texas.

Edouard – In 1984, the storm had a quick life and death in the Bay of Campeche. In 1990, it was a tropical storm that meandered around the Azores. It was the strongest hurricane (category four) of the 1996 season and threatened New England before curving away. The 2002 edition made landfall in Ormond Beach, Florida as a tropical storm while 2008‘s struck Texas.

Fay – Replaced Fran after 1996. Both editions since have been landfalling tropical storms. 2002‘s hit near Matagorda, Texas. In 2008, the storm crossed over Hispanola and Cuba before making four landfalls in Florida (at Key West, Naples, Flagler Beach, and Carabelle).

Fay liked Florida

Fay liked Florida

Gonzalo – We finally reach one of the new names. It is the replacement for  Gustav.

Hanna – Replaced Hortense after 1996. In 2002, it was a tropical storm with landfalls at the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Alabama/Mississippi border. The 2008 hurricane  made landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border and worsened flooding in Haiti, which had already been affected by Fay and Gustav. Were it not for the latter, the name Hanna likely would have been retired.

Isaias – New for 2014, this name replaces Ike, which replaced Isidore after 2002.

Josephine – It is pretty unusual to have a name this deep in the list that is both original and has been used every time, but here we are. In 1984, it was a category two hurricane at sea, while 1990‘s was a category one. The 1996 tropical storm tracked east across the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall in an uninhabited part of Taylor County, Florida. The 2002 and 2008 versions were tropical storms at sea (though remnants of the latter did bring flooding to St Croix).

Kyle – Replaced Klaus after 1990. In 1996, it was a short-lived tropical storm off the coast of Central America. In 2002, it was a wayward hurricane that ultimately hit the Carolinas while curving to the northeast and subsequently absorbed by a cold front. The 2008 edition was also a hurricane and made landfall near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia.

Laura – Replaced Lili after 2002.  It was a north Atlantic tropical storm in 2008.

Marco –  It was the only tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States (near Cedar Key, Florida) in 1990. It was a wayward hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in 1996. The 2008 version was a small tropical storm in the Bay of Campeche.

Nana –  1990 marked the first time that a storm name starting with the letter N made an appearance; it was a hurricane at sea. The 2008 version was a short-lived tropical storm at sea.

Omar – In 2008, it was a category four hurricane, which formed in the Caribbean Sea and moved to the northeast before eventually dissipating west of the Azores.

Paulette – New for 2014, this name is the replacement for Paloma.

Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfrehave never been used. If the hurricane season forecasts are accurate, they will have to wait until 2020 to possibly make an appearance.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been, by the reckoning of most, been very quiet. This feeling is to some extent exacerbated  by the unanimous predictions of above average activity that preceded the season’s start.  Some people may argue against this notion by pointing out that having four named storms in the book before the end of August connotates a season that is anything but quiet; indeed that was significantly ahead of the climatological norm.  However, in terms of aggregate activity, the Atlantic basin has been rather exceptionally lacking in activity. Interestingly, by similar measures so its western hemisphere counterpart has not been notably active, either. The tranquility in the Atlantic is set to end soon.

While there have been five tropical storms in the Atlantic so far this year, none have sustained that status for more than three days or have come very close to being a hurricane. As such, they don’t add up to much in terms of aggregate activity.  One measure of this is Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). It is calculated by squaring the maximum wind speed of a tropical storm/hurricane at the six hour “synoptic time” intervals. The number is made manageable by dividing by 10,000 and while the resulting unit is technically knots2,, the reduced number is referred to simply as a unit of ACE.  To understand the numbers, it is helpful to remember that a 50 knot tropical storm persisting for one day generates 1 unit of ACE while a major hurricane with maximum wind speed of 100 knots generates 1 unit of ACE every six hours, 4 units per day.

As I write this, the Atlantic hurricane season only has roughly 7.6 units of ACE to its name. The year-to-date normal is 23 units.  Again, the short-lived nature of the tropical storms not to mention the absence of hurricanes, let alone major ones, is to account for this.  Having such a low sum this deep into the season is not without precedent, even during the post-1994 active period. At this point in 2002, the season just had 3 units in the books and 2001 had just fewer than 9. Such low figures were more normal in the 1981-1994 time-frame; as 1984 did not see a tropical storm until August 29, it had 0 units at this time.

Often times, a lack of activity in the Atlantic is off-set by high activity in the Pacific.  Such was the case in 1984 when five major hurricanes had formed in the eastern Pacific before the calendar turned to September; 71 units of ACE to its credit going into the final week of August.  During the active period of the Atlantic basin, such inequities exist during the El Niño Seasonal Oscillation, which tends to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic while enhancing that of the Pacific.  Some times the El Niño is readily apparent in the amount of eastern Pacific activity, as was the case in 2006, when the first ever (and to date, only) Central Pacific category 5 hurricane, Ioke, helped contribute to a whopping 90 units of ACE being tallied before the final week of August.

One of a kind

One of a kind

2013 does not fit into that paradigm, however.  Rather than El Niño, we have what some jokingly call “La Nada”, the oscillation is in a neutral state that does not favor either the west Atlantic or easter Pacific basin. Furthermore, while the eastern Pacific has featured six hurricanes so far, none have became major hurricanes. It is the furthest we have gone into the season without a major hurricane in the western hemispher since 2003 when Fabian, the third hurricane of that season, attained major status on August 30th. Going back to the beginning of reliable records for the eastern Pacific basin, the latest date for the first major hurricane in either basin is September 7th (Floyd, 1981).  Combined the two basins have accounted for 53 units of ACE, the fifth lowest total since 1980.

Using that season to date figure to try to predict the future is no straight-forward; wide variations in the spacing of activity make many seasons “front-loaded” or “back-loaded” with activity relative to the present.  Also, there is a wide range of variation across the seasonal sums of ACE for both basins. There is no “magic number” that is guaranteed to be the total for any given season. While the two basins tend to compensate for each other and have a stable average total over the long term, that relationship is only clear over the long term.  I will, however, proceed cautiously in presenting those seasons with comparably low levels of activity in both basins to give a sense of what may be expected for the rest of the season:

Season Atlantic ACE pre
Aug 25
Pacific ACE pre
Aug 25
Combined pre
August 25
Atlantic total for
season
2001 8.89 29.1625 38.025 106
2003 20.485 18.245 38.73 175
2002 3.345 41.66 45.005 67
1981 9.9625 37.1975 47.16 93
2013 7.6525 45.81 53.4625 ???

Despite the average-below average starts to these four seasons, the only to finish distinctly below-average in terms of ACE was 2002, a season in which moderate El Niño conditions were present.**  1981 is a perfect fit for NOAA’s definition of a season with average activity (but was a busy season by 1980’s standards). 2003 had three hurricanes at this point, but three major hurricanes were yet to come. The director of the National Hurricane Center, Rick Knabb, tweeted about the 2001 hurricane season a few days ago. The first hurricane, Erin, did not arrive until September 9th but the season ended with four major hurricanes in the ledger.

I suspect 2013 will bear resemblance to 2001. Doing so would put the season in line with the  pre-season predictions for storm numbers, albeit with a bit lower ACE than anticipated.  While we had a bit of a false alarm a bit over a week ago ***, it appears that the turn of the season is upon us and activity is about to pick up substantially.  Forecast models are indicating that a tropical wave currently exiting Africa may become a tropical cyclone in five to six days time in the deep tropical Atlantic, approximately 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This afternoon’s Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center gives the wave a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days.  Given the time of year, such a system would have to monitored closely due its relative close-in development.  Furthermore, the GFS model is currently showing development of the subsequent wave as well.

Future storms?

Future storms?

If one had to summarize the reason for the quiet season to date in one graphic, it would be hard to do better than this:

The graphic comes from NOAA’s Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product. As vertical instability is a necessary component of formation and maintenance of tropical cyclones, it is one of the key data inputs for the product.  As the graphic shows, instability in the tropical Atlantic has been below normal for the entirety of the season. Its relative absence has been a key factor in the shortened lives of Tropical Storms Dorian and Erin as well as the lack of additional tropical cyclone formation. While it has not yet reached a climatologically normal level, it is as high as it’s been all season.

While I have been composing this post, the sixth tropical cyclone of the season has formed in the Bay of Campeche. A WC-130 is en-route to determine whether it is a tropical storm. I cannot help but be reminded of what I call the “phony season” part of the 2005 hurricane season.  From mid-July to mid-August there was a succession of insignificant storms, which mostly struggled in hostile conditions in the tropical Atlantic. The last of those was the tropical cyclone that seemed poised for development, Tropical Depression Ten.   About a week later, a tropical storm, Jose. similar to our newly formed Tropical Depression Six, formed in the Bay of Campeche and the real season was  back with a vengeance****. Hostile conditions do not last forever.

Will we have our first major hurricane landfall since Wilma in that season without equal? Will we see our first category five hurricane since Felix, nearly six years ago? Those are questions for which we will have to wait for the answers. While we are free to hope that the balance of the season passes without incident, such an occurrence is not probable. We must be prepared.

** Mind you, below-average ACE does not necessarily equate to a  quiet season as victims of Hurricanes Isidore and Lili will attest.

*** See, for example, the Colorado State University forecast team’s prediction for tropical cyclone activity from August 16 to August 29. Anticipating development of Invests 92 and 94 as well as Erin being longer-lived, the forecast called for above average levels of ACE for the two week forecast period. That forecast will go down as big bust.

**** Jose, of course, is the name that Tropical Depression Ten would have received had it become a tropical storm. And there was a time when it appeared the remnant bits, future Tropical Depression Twelve / Katrina, would get that name. Great example of the hazard of bandying about a name for a disturbance or tropical depression before the name is actually earned.