2021 NPSL Playoffs Outlook 7/7

This weekend marks the end of the regular season for most the 76 clubs who are taking part in the National Premier Soccer League’s 2021 season. 33 of the 40 berths in the playoffs have been claimed while 15 clubs are still in the fight for the remaining seven. Fans who followed in past seasons will find the format familiar; generally speaking, conferences have playoffs that feed into regional playoffs that in turn setup national semifinals that lead to the league championship match. As always, though, the specifics are different from past seasons, particularly in terms of some conference alignments to regions.

This outlook shows how the playoffs would take place if they were to start based on today’s standings and played out with higher seeded teams winning every match. Boldfaced names indicate that a club has locked in a place in the playoffs. Italics indicate uncertainty; either the club’s seeding is subject to change or the club has not assured itself a place in the playoff. (Years in parentheses indicate when the club joined the NPSL; unless otherwise noted the club has been in continuous operation since the year listed. With the exception of a few clubs out west who started play early in the year, most had the 2020 season canceled in its entirety).

South Region

Jacksonville Armada U-23 (2011-2015 as Jacksonville United; 2016-2017,2018 as Jacksonville Armada,2019-) have clinched the top seed in the Gulf Coast Conference that was created in 2020. Newly formed Southern States SC currently holds the second seed but Pensacola FC who joined the NPSL this season from the Gulf Coast Premier League (and was a member of the NPSL as Pensacola City FC in 2013) can still claim the home semifinal match for itself. New Orleans Jesters (2013-2018, 2020-), is likely to claim the final seed on offer. A win or draw versus Florida Roots on Saturday puts them in the playoffs; a loss combined with an AFC Mobile (2020) defeat of Tallahassee SC (2020) would put the former GCPL team in at New Orleans’ expense.

Miami Dutch Lions (2016-2018 as Houston Dutch Lions, moved to Miami in 2019, re-joined NPSL in 2020) currently leads the Sunshine Conference. Miami United (2013),is still in contention for the top seed as is Naples United (2017). Central Florida Panthers (2019) is ahead of Boca Raton (2017-2018, 2021-) for the fourth seed; the two clubs face each other on Saturday.

In the Heartland Conference, Springfield MO side Demize (2014-2016 as Joplin Demize, 2017-), is likely to clinch the top seed on Saturday as they face hapless Dallas City FC (2014-2017, 2019, 0-0-9, -51 goal differential) on Saturday. Tulsa Athletic (2013) and OKC 1889 (new this season from the UPSL) have clinched berths while (Little Rock) Arkansas Wolves (new, also from UPSL) hold the fourth seed over Reign FK (Bartlesville, OK , also new).

The winners of the conference playoffs advance to the South Region playoff. The club with the highest regular season points per game (PPG) average receives a bye and is in the region final while the club with the second best PPG hosts the third club for a region semifinal match. If the best teams win, Jacksonville would have the bye while Demize would host Miami Dutch Lions.

East Region

All Keystone Conference playoff berths have been claimed, but the seeding is not entirely set. West Chester United SC (2017) is one point ahead of Atlantic City FC (2018); the two clubs play separately tonight with Atlantic City holding the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a 4-2 victory earlier this season. Morristown, New Jersey side Motown FC (2012-2016 as Clarkstown SC Eagles; Motown FC 2017-) who played in the 2018 league championship is locked into the third seed while FC Monmouth (2018) has claimed the last berth.

Though there remains one regular season match to play for the teams in the playoffs, the seeding for the Mid-Atlatnic Conference playoff is set. FC Baltimore-Christos (2018) has a bye to the conference final while Leesburg side Northern Virginia United (2018) will host Philadelphia Lone Star (2012-2014, 2016-) in the semifinal.

All North Atlantic Conference playoff berths have been taken, but the top seed is yet to be claimed. Kingston Stockade (2016) is two points ahead of Hartford City FC (2017) . They travel to New York Shockers (2012) on Saturday (with Kingston having beat them 2-0 at the start of the season) while Hartford travels to hapless Greater Lowell Rough Diamonds (2017). Newton, MA side Valeo FC (2021) is locked into the fourth seed.

Part of the South region in past seasons, the Southeast Conference is aligned to the East Region this year. (McDonough) Georgia Revolution (2011) has the top seed while (Carrolton) Georgia Storm (2021) is second and Boone, NC side Appalachian FC (2021) is third. LSA Athletico Lanier (Gainesville GA, 2020) is three points ahead of Metro Louisville (2020). The two play on Saturday with Athletico having beaten Louisville 2-1 earlier this season. FC Baltimore-Christos, who had a perfect PPG average until inclement weather forced a shortened match against Northern Virginia United that ended as a 0-0 draw, currently boasts the best average of the would-be regional playoff teams. With one loss, West Chester United is right behind them.

West Region

Due to local pandemic restrictions, the number of teams in the region is greatly reduced in 2021. Unlike past seasons, the Southwest Conference started play at the same time as other conferences rather than earlier in the year. Las Vegas Legends (2020, formerly of Major Arena Soccer League 2012-2016) is one point ahead of FC Golden State (2018, Rose Hills, CA) and two in front of FC Arizona (2017). Golden State plays its regular season final tonight while Las Vegas and Arizona play separately on Saturday.

Usually part of the South Region, the Texas based Lone Star Conference falls under the West this season. Denton Diablos (2018) is currently leading with Laredo Heat (2018, USL PDL member 2004-2015) two points behind. 2017 league runner-up Midland-Odessa (2017, 2009-2016 in the USL PDL) is third. Temple side Coyotes SC (2020, from UPSL) currently holds the last seed, but Katy 1895 (2018) and Irving FC (2021) are still in contention. Coyotes travel to Laredo on Friday while Katy plays seventh place FC Brownsville (2018,2020-) and Irving travels to last-place Forth Worth Vaqueros on Saturday.

Absent a super upset in the Lone Star Conference playoff, the road to the West Region final runs through Texas as the competitive nature of the Southwest conference depressed the PPG of its teams.

Per usual, there are no conference playoffs in the Midwest Region. Instead, the top two teams from the three constituent conferences (Great Lakes, Rust Belt, and North) compete in a six-team regional playoff. The two clubs with the highest PPG get a bye to the semifinal while the remaining conference champion hosts whichever second-place club is nearest (regardless of seeding). At this time, Minneapolis City SC (2017) of the North Conference has a perfect PPG average while Rust Belt representative Cleveland SC (2018) also boasts one of the best averages in the league. Maintaining that average would leave FC Milwaukee Torrent (2016-2018,2020-) of the Great Lakes Conference as the third seed. They would host Rochester, MN side Med City FC (2017) while Carpathia FC of Detroit (2020, from UPSL) would travel to Pittsburgh Hotspurs (2019). All of the teams less Med City and Carpathia have clinched berths; Duluth FC (2017) continues to chase Med City for second place in the North Conference and FC Columbus (2018) still has an oustide chance of reeling in Carpathia for second in the Rust Belt. The regular season for the teams in this region ends on July 17; most clubs have two matches left to play. As such, this bracket is very much in flux.

The winners of the four region playoffs advance no the national semifinals with the two clubs possessing the highest regular-season PPG getting to host the other two clubs. As such, as of today, if the playoffs were to go to form, Minneapolis City with its PPG would host Denton Diablos and Jacksonville Armada U-23 would travel to FC Baltimore-Christos for the July 31 semifinal matches. The winners would then p lay for the NPSL title on August 7.

The next update will be posted after most conferences conclude their regular season on Saturday night.