Tropical Storm Andrea
June 5, 2013
With the entire hurricane season up to this point having passed with Tropical Weather Outlooks mentioning the possibility of its appearance, the first tropical cyclone of the season, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed late this afternoon.
While some forecast models hinted at the probability of the storm’s formation, it was never a sure thing due to relatively inhospitable atmospheric conditions; as late as 2 PM this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance “only” a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.
Large totals of rainfall is the one thing that was a dead cert. Below is the anticipated rainfall totals for the next 48 hours, as forecast by NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center:
In the course of the past fifteen years in Florida, going back to the memorable summer of 1998, when ash on one’s car was a common sight and the Firecracker 400 was postponed to October due to wildfires, there have been many Junes in which residents have been dreaming of a scenario such as this. Alas, this is not one of them. For once, northeast Florida went into Summer with a normal amount of rainfall for the year, albeit unevenly distributed. Golf fans may recall that a month ago the iconic 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass was flooded. And that was not a particularly unique spot for flooding. Parts of rural Clay County (south-southwest of metropolitan Jacksonville), which thought they had seen the worst possible flooding last year in the wake of Tropical Storm Debby, found themselves facing even worse flooding. (A nice break-down of the heavy rain event can be found here). That event, combined with rain in advance of Andrea, creates a bit of a tricky situation for northern Florida. Fortunately, thanks to the recent experience with that event as well as Debby, people in the threatened areas should not find themselves surprised if/when flooding occurs. As was the case with Debby and (in a surprise) the nor’easter, the possiblityy of isolated tornadoes exists.
Take care of yourselves out there, my fellow folks in Florida, especially tomorrow night. Fortunately, Andrea will be yesterday’s news come Friday.
It appears that the only difference between Andrea and the nor’easter will be that one, Andrea will be immortalized forever, however minorly, in the history books. Such is the life for storms.