Florida State’s 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

June 1, 2011

With the usual caveats that an active season doesn’t necessarily mean your coastal locale will be hit by a hurricane (and vice versa) and that these predictions are research projects in progress.

Today, Florida State University’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies released the output of their model’s forecast for the hurricane season. The model, developed under the lead of Tim Larow, indicates 17 named storms and 9 hurricanes will form this season with a total Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 163 (due to limitations in the model, the number of major hurricanes is not forecast).  This is slightly above the other forecasts that I’ve tracked. 

The model’s methodology is described in the Journal of Climate article Atlantic Basin Hurricane Simulations.   Output from the model was first released in forecast form in 2009. 

Season FSU Named Storms/Hurricanes Forecast Actual FSU Accumulated Cyclone Energy Forecast Actual
         
2009 8/4 9/3/2 65 51
2010 17/10 19/11/5 156 166

The forecast for named storms,hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy was below the conensus and proved to be the most accurate.  Their storm numbers for 2010 matched the consensus and NOAA’s forecast edged it out performance-wise on that basis. However, their ACE forecast was again below consensus and proved to be the most accurate. Interestingly, the ACE forecast for this season is the highest among predictions I track.

 

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