97L Update

July 21, 2010

On their 2 AM Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center increased the probability of tropical storm formation within the next 48 hours to 70%. Most recent best guess of a notional center was 20.0°N 68.4° W; northeast of the Dominican Republic’s eastern tip. As before, no surface circulation is readily evident, though we do need sunrise to confirm that using visual satellite imagery (infrared doesn’t show low-level clouds).

No dramatic changes in the model guidance that would cause me to extensively revise and amend my remarks from last night. Intensity guidance is down slightly, so the idea of worst case being  rainmaking tropical storm for south Florida and subsequently the panhandle/Alabama/Mississippi remains valid.

(images from NOAA’s Satellite Service’s Divisions

97L and Tropical Atlantic pages.

Next post here will be this afternoon/evening.  Any noteworthy items before then will be posted to my Friendfeed

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