Tropical Depression Two races towards Brownsville

July 8, 2010

The lack of convection near the center of TD 2 persisted until about an hour ago:

The convection that’s fired is to the east-southeast of the presumed center, which was 160 miles southeast of Brownsville at 4 AM CDT per the latest NHC advisory.  I say presumed center, because without a plane flying in it to provide center fixes early this morning, the NHC relies on position estimates from in-house and a satellite agency of NOAA.  The two estimates were 66 nautical miles apart from each other. Regardless of which was correct,  the storm is now moving fast enough to the northwest that it’ll be overland within 9-12 hours.

Intensity forecast is unchanged; the tropical depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today (that may be the result of having one of the most agressive forecasters on duty for the 10 PM advisory, followed by the most conservative the next) .  The primary concern remains, however.  The good news about the rapid forward speed is that it will keep the totals down… but still, 4-8 inches of rain is expected on an area that is still pretty well water-logged from Alex.

The depression is now visible on Brownsville radar.  A Hurricane Hunter is  on the way and should be able to provide a position fix along with current intensity for the 7 AM intermediate advisory.


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