Tropical Depression Alex going feet wet

June 27, 2010

An unscheduled arena football + baseball game doubleheader*** that kept me out past 06Z this morning left me with little energy or time to take a close look at the changes in the forecast for Alex. As always, Dr Masters has a good overview on the future of Alex. I will offer a couple of notes, however.

After going ashore about 16 hours ago, the center of Alex is starting to emerge over the Bay of Campeche.

It will probably take another 18 hours or so far Alex to really start to recover from the overland transit.  That time’s needed to get the bulk of the circulation over water. Also, the southern Bay of Campeche is rather shallow. Because of that, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is rather low, despite the warm sea surface temperatures that exist throughout the Gulf of Mexico.

The most recent SHIPS intensity guidance, which assumes the NHC track forecast, brings Alex up to 100 mph, category two hurricane status.

A Hurricane Hunter mission is on the schedule for tonight, launching at 4 PM CDT, to arrive at the storm around 7 PM.  Given how much of the circulation would still be overland combined with satellite imagery providing good position fixes, I’m not sure whether that mission would be a go.  If it’s not, the next mission would launch at 4 AM CDT to provide position and intensity data for the 10 AM advisory.

An upper-air data collection flight is scheduled for tomorrow night. Data from that will be fed to the models that the NHC will examine prior to their Tuesday morning advisory.  Hopefully, the data will help reduce the spread in model guidance that currently exists.

Between that and the current forecast motion of the storm, it’s reasonable for Texas and Louisana residents to not get too concerned about Alex until then.

I may post a few quick notes to Friendfeed this evening. Don’t anticipate posting anything else here prior to 5 AM CDT tomorrow morning.

*** I had planned on attending the arena football game.  What I didn’t plan on was the baseball game taking place across the street suffering a rain delay.  Because of the rain delay, the baseball game was in the second inning after the arena game was over with free admission offered.  Made for a pleasant surprise and an enjoyable late evening at the ‘ol ball game.


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