Tropics update 06160630

June 25, 2010

– Not much new organization-wise with 93L ; the latest Tropical Weather Outlook continues to forecast a 60% chance of tropical storm formation in the next 48 hours.  The low is moving very slowly/near stationary due east of Honduras.  The tentatively scheduled Hurricane Hunter mission is  likely to be  a go.  At the moment, global forecast models are more or less in agreement in a forecast of the low going north-west to Mexico/southern Texas (no stronger than a tropical storm).

– In the Pacific, Hurricane Celia, only the second June category five on record in the basin, remains at category five status this morning per the 5 AM advisory.  The 50% deficit in Accumulated Cyclone Energy recorded year to date in the northern hemisphere that existed when Celia became a hurricane has shrunk to ~ 20% and continues to narrow due to Celia (with a small bit of help from Hurricane Darby as well).

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