Invest 93L becomes Tropical Depression One

June 25, 2010

Late this afternoon, after some flying around, the Hurricane Hunters found a well defined surface circulation north of Honduras.  Based on observations from the mission, the invest was upgraded to Tropical Depression One.   As I mentioned in one of my Friendfeed posts, there was a spot observation of tropical storm force winds, but the observation was located far enough from the center that it would be reasonable to think it wasn’t representative of the circulation.  Five day forecast is a compromise of global models, which eventually bring the storm to northern Mexico / Texas and the specialized GFDL and HWRF models, which bring it around the central Gulf of Mexico and curving into the Panhandle.  I haven’t looked at enough hard data today to opine on way or the other, but when I was considering the split opinions last night, I considered the western scenario more likely (and as I noted in a previous post, it does have a bit of climatological backing).   Longer term intensity forecast is highly dependent on the land interaction that’s in the storms mid-term future.  Short term, it is a threat to become a tropical storm at any time.  As the next hurricane hunter mission would not be in the storm until 1 AM EDT Saturday morning, any upgrade before then would be based off the 8:00 PM  intensity estimates based on satellite imagery.

visual image from Satellite Services Division floater


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