June 22, 2010
A few quick notes on the tropical wave traversing the Caribbean:
– Worst news first: The GFDL continues to forecast tropical cyclone formation with the storm heading into the Gulf of Mexico. Its most recent forecast intensifies it to major hurricane level and has it about 100 miles south/south-east of the Deepwater Horion. The only good news is that appears to continue to move the storm to the northwest far too quickly early in the forecast period, thereby throwing off the rest of the forecast.
– While there appeared to be a circulation forming yesterday evening, contemporaneous scatterometer data didn’t show a circulation at the surface. SHIPS guidance continue to indicate that if a surface circulation were to form it would become a hurricane within three days.
– NHC continues to forecast a 50% chance of a tropical depression forming the next 48 hours. Based on what I’m seeing right now, I would not expect one to form before tomorrow. A Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.