Gustav in the Gulf

August 30, 2008

After going ashore in Cuba around four hours ago, Hurricane Gustav is feet wet again.

Key West long range radar

The next Hurricane Hunter isn’t scheduled to be on station until the 2 AM intermediate advisory, so the intensity for the 11 PM advisory will either be a continuation from earlier (150 mph), or an approximation.  Other than the eye being obscured on infrared satellite, there isn’t much evidence of the land interaction causing much weakening.

As far as forecast track goes, there isn’t anything to suggest signficant changes.  The reliable cpmponents  in the latest model guidance are in a tight cluster.  According to this model performance page, the GFDL has been the best up to this point (though keep in mind that like a mutual fund past performance is no guarantee in the future).  I took the forecast point for 2 PM Monday and ran it through the ever so awesome historical track tool to get some historical perspective.  As you can see, the GFDL forecast Gustav it fairly close to where Betsy made landfall:

More later, after the 11 PM advisory package is released.

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