Tropical Depression Six

September 3, 2006

An area of low in the mid-Atlantic has developed enough for the National Hurricane Center to classify it as Tropical Depression Six. Advisories will begin at 5PM EDT. To give you a feel for where it’s at, here’s a satellite shot of the central Atlantic. The disturbance is a little to below and to the right of center, near 15°N 40°W:

centlant03sep1815z.jpg

Intensity guidance brings this up to hurricane strength in 2-4 days. I’m inclined to lean with the later end of that spectrum owing to the depression being around a high shear enviroment at the moment. As it moves west however, it should find a more favorable upper-air enviroment and it will certainly find warmer sea surface temperatures.

The depression is in a position that threatens the east coast, though it is far too soon to speculate whether that threat will be realized. Preliminary model guidance takes it on a northwest/west-northwest track through the forecast period. The $64 question is what the strength and positioning of the Bermuda High will be. The long range GFS forecast is for it to be centered well to the east of the United States in a fashion that would allow a storm to remain at sea. As the system is a good 8-10 days away from land we’ll have plenty of time to see how the steering pattern evolves in the days ahead.

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