Tidbits for the 8th of August
August 8, 2006
– The area of low pressure being watched for signs of development into a tropical depression is now about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands, moving west northwest at 17 mph. Unfavorable upper-air conditions, dry air, and a lack of convergence at the surface have kept this system from appearing as impressive as it did a couple of days ago.
– If this system were to persist a couple of more days, it could find a more favorable enviroment in the same area Chris was born (northern Lesser Antilles) and develop there. However, I am skeptical of it being able to do so. For an alternate view, refer to Dr Masters.
– As such, today will be the third day in August without any tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, with many more likely to follow (assuming of course that the aforementioned low does not develop). Quite a difference from
2004, which featured only two days without the NHC issuing advisories on a storm and 2005, which had only four such days 2004 and 2005, which only had four such days apiece.
– The last of the August updates to hurricane season forecasts is in. The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center forecasts slightly lower activity than the previous one. It calls for 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-4 major hurricanes. This falls in line with the Colorado State forecast and the one from Tropical Storm Risk.
– When you combine the activity to date with those forecasts, it appears likely that we could be in for some sort of repeat of the 2001 and 2002 seasons. Neither season had a hurricane before September, but both went on to have two hurricanes that were notorious enough to merit their names being retired.