It’s a comeback (or maybe not, see cautionary note)- Chris update 040200L

August 4, 2006

About 12 hours ago I wrote the following

Right now there is a small area of convection that has fired up near the center. Too soon characterize whether it’s the beginning of a comeback, or if it’s more like a last gasp. As usual refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest and greatest.


Infrared image of Chris at that time

Here is what he looked like 12 hours later (about an hour ago from the time I’m writing this)


Infrared image 12 hours later


While far from textbok appearance, Chris’ appearance has improved significantly over the past 12 hours. And that has translated into real gains. The maximum flight level wind recorded during the afternoon early evening hurricane hunter mission was 43 knots. About 15 minutes ago, the WC-130 found a flight level max of 53 knots (and it hasn’t sampled all quadrants yet, although that observation was in the typically strongest northeast quadrant). 53 knots flight level converts to 50 mph at the surface. This observation was transmitted after the “2 AM” advisory was released (at 1:49).

Now it remains to see if this is Michael Jordan coming back to the Bulls…or Michael Jordan coming back to the Wizards.

Next update will be up shortly after 0500.

A CAUTIONARY NOTE AT 0300: The 53 knot observation referenced above may prove to be extremely unrepresentative. Unfortunately between then and now, recon has not flown into any areas where one would expect to find the strongest winds (i.e. where the convection is at), so there hasn’t been any overwhelming evidence to contradict it. I would like to see another northeast quadrant pass, or at least a southeast quadrant pass before passing judgement on it.


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