August 3, 2006
– Tropical Storm Chris is hanging on. Data from the WC-130 indicated that it had dropped below tropical storms strength, however for the purpose of continuity, the forecasters kept it at a tropical storm, noting that if there continued to be a lack of convection associated with the storm that it would be downgraded to a tropical depression. Another WC-130 is in the storm now. Right now there is a small area of convection that has fired up near the center. Too soon characterize whether it’s the beginning of a comeback, or if it’s more like a last gasp. As usual refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest and greatest.
– The August update to the hurricane season forecast for the forecast written by Colorado State’s Phillip Klotzbach and William Gray has been released. While continuing to forecast an above average season, they are expecting a season to be a little more quiet than anticipated. Their forecast for named storms dropped from 17 to 13, hurricanes dropped from 9 to 7, and intense hurricanes from 5 to 3.
– The GFS and Canadian forecast models continue to think that the fourth named storm will form in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands in the eastern Atlantic. The UKMET model continues to forecast a tropical depression in the area that subsequently weakens.