Tropical Storm Chris update 020800L

August 2, 2006

The hurricane hunter found a slightly higher maximum flight level winds on its final pass (67 knots), which caused the intensity for the 8 AM intermediate advisory to be bumped to 65 mph.

One thing of note, that could cause a rethinking of my expectations for the track of the storm:The heading of the storm (as calculated from the center fixes made by the plane) over the past six hours is 305° , which suggests that the storm is truly moving a little bit more to the north than it was yesterday (vice a temporary jump to the north because of a center reformation). That by itself could cause a little bit more of a northward adjustment to the forecast, heightening the concern for South Florida.

My next update will be at around 2 this afternoon as I’ll see whether my prediction of Chris being a hurricane at the 5 PM advisory verifies.  Next official update from the National Hurricane Center is at 11 AM EDT.


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