Tropical Storm Chris tidbits 020200L
August 2, 2006
The trend of slow but steady intensification that started at around midday on the 1st continued into this evening. The current intensity of 60 mph is based off a recon flight observation from early evening and a plane is entering Chris as I type this.
The 11 PM forecast discussion is my favorite discussion so far as it raises some of the issues that have been in my head since last night, chief among them the possiblity of interaction with land. To me that is the more fundamental question in the intensity forecast (vice how it will move in relation to the shear generating upper level low, plus, it is a tiny bit more solvable). Also, the forecast track, after being too far north for my liking, is more in line with my general thinking.
Unfortunately, the global models continue to not be particularly helpful with the forecast, although it does seem that they are getting closer in having an accurate depiction of the storm to start with.
As was the case last night, I’m not wholly convinced it is necessary, but it would be prudent for residents of the Florida Keys to monitor the progress of this storm over the next couple of days.
Recon pass through the northeast quadrant found a max flight level winds of 59 knots, which matches the max found during the previous flight ***. It should be noted that the maxxes found so far in Chris have tended to de in the southeast quadrant, which the plane has not flown into yet.
If there’s something surprising found in the course of the flight, I’ll throw up a new post, otherwise next post will be right after the 5 AM advisory package.
*** Brendan’s comment drew my explicit attention to something I sort of noticed but glossed over in my mind. The 59 knot flight level max was the highest found since the update at 5:30 PM (which was necessitated by a 64 knot flight level wind observation).
Since then, recon has found a max of 62 knots, which converts to 60 mph, which means that disregarding minor cyclical variations, Chris has not changed strength over the past eight hours.
I had originally written 50 mph as the current intensity… the current intensity was 50 knots, which rounds up to 60 mph…. another well-earned notch for Brendan’s corrections score-sheet.
And, oh by the way Brendan, a comment I submitted to your blog is in the tummy of your spam filter… please rescue! 🙂