TS Chris update 08011300L

August 1, 2006

It seems that I had the misfortune of writing my comments earlier this morning at the point Chris was looking his best. As such my comment on the short term intensity (expecting further strengthening) has been invalid up to this point. In fact, it’s quite  possible that Chris’ estimated strength (40) mph is over-rated.

Even with the help of the sun rising (thereby giving us visible imagery, instead of just infrared and microwave), there’s still a big discrepency in the estimated position of the center of the storm.  The Hurricane Hunter is taking off as I write this, and as it is launching from St. Croix, it will be in the storm soon. It will resolve these questions of position and intensity.

The upper-air Gulfstream IV mission that was scheduled for this evening, which would have feed dropsonde data into this evening’s models has been canceled. I won’t speculate as to why.

Not worth writing anything more without the data from the WC-130, so I’ll end here for now. Update in a couple of hours.

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