Tropical Storm Chris – Hurricane Hunter flies in

August 1, 2006

The WC-130 has been flying in Chris for over an hour now. The highest winds they have found at flight level have been 53 knots, which, when adjusted to the surface and converted to miles per hour, amounts to 50 mph. It appears that the NHC’s position estimate (17.6 North, 60.9 West, or 65 miles east of Antigua at 2 PM) was pretty good (recon found the center slightly east of there (60.7 West), suggesting that the NHC’s estimate was about 20 nautical miles too far east).

As I tried to suggest in my first post last night, Chris seems to be more resilient than the global forecast models think. The only scenario in which I see the storm being killed off is if it were to go straight into the mountains of Hispanola.  I continue to think that the forecast track, which has bent a little more to the south, is still too far north.

This is my last post until late this evening, which will come out after I have a look at the evening global forecast model runs. As always, the National Hurricane Center website is your friend.


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