Around the world in tropical weather

July 10, 2006

Starting out in the Atlantic… the only feature worthy of mention is a tropical wave that is about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. While it has a surface low associated with it and has a well-defined satellite appearance, it is about to head into the same sort of unfavorable conditions that have hampered similar waves as they’ve entered the Caribbean. This is definitely not 2005, where that area at this time of year was hospitable to the development of Hurricanes Dennis and Emily.

I don’t have any expectations of anything developing in the Atlantic until the last week of July. When you look at the climatology of this high activity period (i.e. the years since) 1995 July is a Hot or Not month. It was hot in 1995 (four named storms), 2003 (ditto), and 2005 (five named storms). On the flip side, you have years like 2004 and 1998, when the first storm of the season formed in the last week of July. The current conditions definitely make this month a Not.

As one should discern from the previous seasons that had Not July’s you can’t project activity for the month into the rest of the season. To underline this point, note that the British forecasting venture Tropical Storm Risk released their July forecast update, which continues previous forecasts of above average activity for the season.

Moving out to the East Pacific… like the Atlantic, it has been quite in the basin, albeit more anomalously so. It has been 44 days since Tropical Storm Aletta formed, which is the third longest gap between the first and second tropical storm formations (the record is 57 days, which occurred in the 1972 season). Indications from the forecast models are that this drought is at an end and the season is about to “really begin”. It would be wholly unsurprising to see a couple of tropical storm formations there in the course of this week.

Finally, a quick look at the West Pacific, which is home to all of the tropical cyclone action currently in progress. The former Typhoon Ewiniar is affecting the Korean peninsula and is becoming extratropical.

ewiniar.jpg

To the southeast is Tropical Storm Billis, whose development has been impeded by the relative proximity of Ewiniar.

bilis.jpg

The images of the storms are from the Naval Research Lab’s Tropical Cyclone page. For more information on the storms, refer to the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Tropical Cyclone page and the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center page.

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