Tropical Storm Formation NOT expected off Florida

July 5, 2006

Reuters jumped the gun and misinterpreted the early morning Tropical Weather Outlook… here’s what the NHC’s Outlook said:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS…CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA… AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA…AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT WATERS… ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME… THEY MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Reuters turned this into Tropical storm could form off Florida and the headline made the Drudge Report.

Perhaps because of that, the 11:30 AM outlook is more blunt:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

Dr Masters’ post today covers the situation, which is  reminiscent of the situation about ten ago, where a disturbed area off the Bahamas passed over Florida, and then nearly became a tropical storm off the coast of the Carolinas.

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