Tropics Watch 0609
June 9, 2006
I haven't had much time today to look at the situation as I've been preparing for my "one weekend a month" followed by my "two weeks a year" for the Navy Reserves.
The area of low pressure that was mentioned here yesterday appears to be consolidating itself into a closed low 200 miles or so east of the spot being watched yesterday. From this afternoon's Tropical Weather Discussion:
CARIBBEAN SEA… THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS A 1006 MB LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W. THIS LOW SITS ON A SLOW MOVING SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 78W-87W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN IN THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK…BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY. THIS BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING WITH BUOY OBS REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION…COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BECOME IN FAIR AGREEMENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MIGRATES NWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO
The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for tomorrow afternoon is still on (and is looking more likely, of course).
I'm still on the skeptical side of things as far as development goes. Anything developing is going to have an uphill fight.
I'll try to write something a little more comprehensive late this evening from my hotel…