Tropics Watch 0608

June 8, 2006

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of low pressure immediately off the coast of Belize. With regards to this, their Tropical Weather Discussion says

A BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRES APPEARS TO BE FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE SFC TROUGH NEAR BELIZE. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT TC FORMATION MAY OCCUR FROM THIS ENERGY SOURCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A BIT LESS HOSTILE. THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL DRIFT WWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN…

As such, it's very early in the game, there is nothing resembling so much as a tropical depression at this time. A hurricane hunter plan is tentatively scheduled to investigate the area on Saturday, if it appears to be necessary.

The key unknown at this time is exactly where the center of low pressure will be (assuming, of course, that a closed low does form). The further up the coast, the more favorable the situation is for something to develop due to the extra time it would get over water after crossing the Yucatan.

At this time, I am highly skeptical of models that develop this significantly and quickly bring it into the central Gulf of Mexico. I find it more likely that anything developing hangs around the Bay of Campeche and affects Mexico only.

Upper air conditions are fairly unfavorable on both sides of the Mexican coast, this is inhibiting the disturbed weather in the Pacific that I thought may yield some development this week.

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