Tropics watch 0601

June 1, 2006

Dr Master's post covers the situation in the Atlantic well. Because of that, I'll just point out a product that highlights some of his points.

This image shows the probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours and is the fruit of research by Mark Demaria and others from the organizations that call Fort Collins, Colorado home.The product works by dividing the Atlantic and west Pacific basin into blocks of 5°  latitude and longitude (roughly 4000 square miles).  The blocks then go through a screening step, where current atmospheric conditions are checked against the historical probability of a tropical cyclone forming from those conditions. If water temperatures are too cold, wind shear is too high, etc. that area is eliminated from consideration. The remaining areas are then put through a statistical procedure to create the 24 hour formation probability.

Because the squares are so (relatively) small, the probability graphic maxxes out at 12%. To make the product a bit more usable for larger areas, the squares are added up for sub-basins (i.e. Gulf of Mexico, West Carribean, etc.).

As you can see in the graphic, there is little chance of anything ocurring in the Atlantic, but there are increased probabilities in the eastern Pacific. Especially in the area bounded by 95°-110° West and 10°-15° North. There is a low pressure system in that area that is under watch for signs of development.

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product is updated four times a day. Those interested in specifics of how it works are pointed to the product description as well as the extended abstract that Demaria presented at the 2004 American Meteorlogical Society hurricanes conference.


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