A comment on commentary on Avila’s forecast discussion for Zeta

January 2, 2006

Via Brendan’s latest Zeta post, I read The Storm Track’s comment on Lawrence Avila’s forecast discussion (unlinked, since there isn’t a permanent link to it yet… the NHC’s archives are organized in a yearly manner, so it isn’t designed for storms that crossover years, heh).

I did not really read it the same way The Storm Track did.  

It sounded to me like Avila was saying that on the basis of model preference alone (i.e. without regards to the meteorlogical situation) it is hard to go with SHIPS against the GFDL.

Not terribly unreasonable, as the SHIPS forecast of three days ago had Zeta being dead by now.  However,  the GFDL of the same time had Zeta as a hurricane by now. 

It read to me that Avila would have liked to have gone with the GFDL solution (by model prefernce) but the overall situation argued against it.  I don’t think there was any gut feeling of his that he ‘wimped out’ on.

Anyhow, the latest GFDL run has backed down from the hurricane forecast (but still gives Zeta a far longer life than SHIPS or the NHC is forecasting for her)


One Response to “A comment on commentary on Avila’s forecast discussion for Zeta”

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