November storm / Gamma watch

November 18, 2005

Since predicting a tropical storm in November, I’ve been mildly anxious in awaiting verification. It just may come today:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT  NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  900 AM EST FRI
NOV 18 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE  REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER  ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.  IF CURRENT
TRENDS  CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER  TODAY.  IF
ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY  BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND  THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR  THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE  POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN  ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.   THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND  MUDSLIDES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO  INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

Now, normally I would not mention such a development as it would tend to jinx things. Fortunately, the NHC has already done some jinxing of it’s own with this gem from yesterday:

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  WHILE THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENRATION...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

Satellite imagery shows a generous amount of thunderstorm activity and cyclonic rotation. A hurricane hunter is enroute and will be in the system by 1 PM (EST) or so.Check the National Hurricane Center for further developments.

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