November storm / Gamma watch
November 18, 2005
Since predicting a tropical storm in November, I’ve been mildly anxious in awaiting verification. It just may come today:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 AM EST FRINOV 18 2005SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSIONTWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENTTRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. IFADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THENORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREASHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSSPORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THEYUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATETHE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
Now, normally I would not mention such a development as it would tend to jinx things. Fortunately, the NHC has already done some jinxing of it’s own with this gem from yesterday:
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WHILE THE SYSTEMWILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENRATION...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
Satellite imagery shows a generous amount of thunderstorm activity and cyclonic rotation. A hurricane hunter is enroute and will be in the system by 1 PM (EST) or so.Check the National Hurricane Center for further developments.