Will there be a November storm in 2005?

November 2, 2005

Yesterday, this blog offered an overview of the November storms of seasons past. Today, it presents a discussion of the possibility of a November storm this season.

As mentioned yesterday, 40% of the past 60 seasons had a tropical storm form in November. In any other season, that would be enough to make ‘No November storm’ a comfortable first guess for most people. However, as this season has shredded so many records, this climatology does not offer as much comfort as it normally would. So we press on to the current data.

The first thought that entered my mind when looking at the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential chart was that a repeat of 1985’s Kate is impossible. The heat just isn’t there. (To see just how rapidly the water has been cooling in the Gulf, compare the current chart to that of October 19.)

Looking to the south, we can see that the Caribbean is still hospitable for storms. A glance at the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly chart shows that the eastern two thirds of it is a little bit warmer than usual for the time of year.

Wind shear is low in that part of the basin and the GFS model shows that to be the case for the next 10 days (although, one is barely safe betting on the shear forecast for tommorow, much less one for the 10 day period).

Based on this, I expect there to be a Gamma, and I expect it to be something between (in both track and intensity) 2003’s Odette and 1999’s Lenny.


One Response to “Will there be a November storm in 2005?”

  1. […] Since predicting a tropical storm in November, I’ve been mildly anxious in awaiting verification. It just may come today: SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 AM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 […]

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