(I tried posting this as a comment to Brendan’s post, but it got flagged as spam, so I’ll repeat it here and throw in a couple of references for the meteorologically inclined)
One of the things to come out of the recent research into annual hurricanes is an Annular Hurricane Index, which screens storms for the possibility of being annular and then rates how annular they are. It’s being operationally tested this year.
And yes, yesterday evening, it did pass all of the screening steps and was marginally annualar, according to the index.
One thing that I didn’t realize when I wrote the Katrina post is that (based on observation), there is a max SST for a hurricane to be annular. The screening step for the index fails a storm if it’s over 29.1 C. Dean will be over waters warmer than that today.
References:
Operational Implementation of an Objective Annular Hurricane Index (Powerpoint presentation)
 Annular Hurricanes (PDF)
What are Annular Hurricanes? (PDF)
As noted by Stormtrack and others, Tropical Depression Two formed this morning off the southeast U.S. coast.
A reconnaisance plane is currently flying through the system. It has not yet made a full pass through the northeast quadrant of the storm where one would expect to find the strongest winds. It looks like the plane won’t do so until fairly close to advisory time (5 PM EDT). To this point the highest flight level winds recon has found is 32 knots; recon rould need to find flight level winds at around 45 knots or higher to justify an upgrade to tropical storm status.
Unfortunately, I lack time to write more until late tonight… stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest and greatest.
Up until now, I don't think I've ever had a book that I've waited several years to read. In this case, the wait was about fifteen years.
One of the great books of my formative years was The Great Escape*, the classic true story of the largest prisioner escape of World War II. In it is this passage:
It was about this time in East Compound that Eric Williams and two of his friends escaped through the most brilliant and ingenious tunnel yet devised.
They made a vaulting horse with covered-in sides and parked it every day by the warning wire in exactly the same place. While a team of men had vaulting drill over it, Williams and his colleagues, who had been carried to the spot inside the horse, were tunneling underneath. Being able to start by the warning wire instead of under a hutgave them a couple of hundred feet less to dig to freedom. After weeks and weeks of dogged and courageous work, they broke through outside the wire one night and all three of them got back ton England by way of sweeden. That effort (described in Eric Williams' brilliant book, The Wooden Horse) is already acknowledged as one of the classic escapes of history.
I had read those words from a vintage 1950's copy of The Great Escape that I had found in a used bookstore. I assumed at the time that the only place I would find The Wooden Horse would be a used bookstore as well, but years of browsing proved fruitless and eventually I forgot about it.
Not too long ago, I found a selection of re-issues of classic WWII books in the bargain bin at Books-A-Million for five dollars a piece, one of them being The Great Escape. I purchased it along with a few other books. I only just recently re-read it, and of course was reminded of my long sought after book. For some reason the thought to search Amazon didn't occur to me immediately at the moment, but it did when I was placing an order for Oriana Fallaci's The Rage and The Pride and The Force of Reason. I was in the usual bind of being just under the threshold for free shipping and needed to order another book. I was stumped for a moment, but then sprang into action and sure enough, found that a reprint of The Wooden Horse was released in 2005.
Got it in the mail yesterday, and am so happy that I'm blogging about it now 
* The link is to the particular edition I found in Books-A-Million. The funny thing about it is the cover, which features Steve McQueen on a motorcycle. The image of course, is from the movie adaptation of the novel. The scene that the picture is taken from is completely fictional. As such, anyone who picks up this copy without having ever seen the movie is bound to be puzzled by the selection for the cover.
technorati tags: books
Despite opening an 11 point lead early in the second half, FSU allowed Wake Forest to take the lead with about 3:40 left in the game. The 4 seniors of the Demon Deacon squad rose to the occasion as the Seminoles collapsed (and continued to foul even though the game was lost; that’s what made the score a bit more lopsided than it should have been). For the 10th time in 15 ACC tournaments, FSU is out after one game.
The Seminoles scored the first nine points of the game and have yet to relinquish the lead.
Al Thornton leads the way with 11 points and the Noles have shot 53.8% from the field so far.
We now enter the part of the game that has been dangerous for the Seminoles, the ‘third quarter’. In the Duke and Miami games FSU gave up their leads and the Virginia Tech game, which was tied at halftime became a Virginia Tech win because of a slow start in the second half for Florida State.
George Washington, a team that had lost only once this season has lost to Temple 68-53. Somewhere, a team on the bubble cries.
The top team in the country, Connecticut, is has lost in overtime against Syracuse.
In the ACC opener, Miami, which came into this game 1-11 in games that they trailed at the half, was losing to Clemson 34-26 at the break. Down by 1 with 48 seconds left, freshman Denis Clemente, a 24% shooter from beyond the arc, hit a three-pointer to give the Hurricanes a lead which they held to the end as they beat the Tigers 66-63. Miami faces Duke tomorrow at noon.
Florida State let a 5 point half time lead lapse into a 7 point deficit early in the second half, but tied the game with eight minutes left and came out on top in the ensuing dogfight.
Miami did not score in the last 3 minutes as a desperation 3-point shot heaved at the end went off the back of the rim.
The win gives Florida State the 5th seed in the ACC tournament, which schedules them for a game against Wake Forest on Thursday afternoon.
More importantly, Florida State finished regular conference play with a winning record and has probably sealed a spot in the NCAA tournament.
Since predicting a tropical storm in November, I’ve been mildly anxious in awaiting verification. It just may come today:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 900 AM EST FRI
NOV 18 2005
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. IF
ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN COAST AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
EVEN IF NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
Now, normally I would not mention such a development as it would tend to jinx things. Fortunately, the NHC has already done some jinxing of it’s own with this gem from yesterday:
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WHILE THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENRATION...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
Satellite imagery shows a generous amount of thunderstorm activity and cyclonic rotation. A hurricane hunter is enroute and will be in the system by 1 PM (EST) or so.Check the National Hurricane Center for further developments.
Am not looking forward to Saturday’s game against Clemson.Â
An Associated Press story gives one cause for concern: ‘Noles running back to miss second straight game. Now, Leon Washington is not our only quality tailback, Lorenzo Booker is quite capable as well. However, the tailback is only one part of the running game. The other part, of course, is the offensive line.
Which brings forth more reason to dread (from the Tallahassee Democrat):Â No excuses, just fact: Hurt FSU linemen are piling up.
Â
Mark McHale was forced to use PlanB weeks ago. The first-year Florida State offensive-line coach just hopes he doesn’t have to go much deeper in the alphabet.
The Seminoles are down to eight linemen - at best - who can be counted upon. And some of them are banged up…
Florida State will be in deep trouble if they do not get a running game going. Consider the last two games they’ve played against Clemson. On their last trip to Death Valley, in 2003, they managed a mere 11 yards rushing. 358 passing yards were not enough to keep the Seminoles from losing 26-10. In 2004 FSU managed 186 yards on the ground and won 41-22.
