Tropical Storm Nena forms in a very unusual place for this time of year.

The deep tropical Atlantic is not an unusual place for storms to form in July, August, or September.  Once you get past the peak of season and into October, however, it’s rare to see a storm form east of 40° W and south of 20° N, which is where Tropical Storm Nena formed this afternoon.

How unusual is it to see a storm form out there this late in the season?  Well, you have to go back to Pablo of 1995 to find an example of it in October.  To find an example in the second week of October, you have to go back to 1928.  But that was still a couple of days before today.  To find a storm forming that far south and east later in the season than today you have to go all the way back to Hurricane #10 of 1903.

That little tidbit of trivia is about the most interesting thing that we’re probably going to get out of Nena as unfavorable atomspheric conditions are forecast to wipe the storm off the map by tomorrow evening.

However, that may not mean a quiet Atlantic basin as an area of low pressure in the central Caribbean is being closely monitored for signs of development.

Ike enters the Gulf of Mexico

After passing just to the southwest of the area ravaged by Gustav, Hurricane Ike has entered the Gulf of Mexico with the mid-upper Texas coast as its likely final destination. Check the National Hurricane Center website for the latest.

Ike goes feet wet in the Caribbean

Satellite and radar imagery indicate that the center of Ike is over water again after spending about 14 hours traversing eastern Cuba.  Due to the northweast-southeast orientation of the Cuba coastline and Ike’s general westward movement, it is likely that the storm will remain over water through tomorrow morning, as indicated by the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. Barring a fairly sharp deviation to the northwest, Ike’s future track would be very unfortunate for the Cuban victims of Gustav as they would find themselves on the strong side of Ike as well.

Ike goes ashore in Cuba

From the National Hurricane Center:

THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF HOLGUIN...NEAR PUNTO DE SAMA AROUND 0945 PM
EDT...0145 UTC.  MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 125
MPH...205 KM/HR.

Holguin, Cuba radar

The unusual track of Ike

I would like to take a moment to point out how unusual of a track Ike has taken.

If we had only past history to go on to predict the future of Ike at the time it formed, we would have concluded that it would miss land, or perhaps hit North Carolina.  These are the tracks of satellite-era storms that passed near Ike’s formation point:

Of course, we knew there was a ridge of high pressure that would keep Ike from going to sea. At one point, the forecast looked like Andrew’s track with the westerly and northwesterly runs of the track reversed. (compare Ike’s 11 PM Thursday forecast with Andrew’s track.  Hurricane watchers with a strong historical background will recall that there were  a few major hurricanes that took a course similar to Ike’s forecast in the 1920’s and 30’s:

However, of course, that scenario did not come to pass. Instead of south Florida, Ike is headed for the north-eastern coast of Cuba. If you are struggling to come up with an equal number of major hurricanes that hit that stretch of Cuban coast, (which is by no means tiny, it is is comparable to the east coast of Florida), it’s not due to ignorance or faulty memory.

It’s not like storms haven’t come close to this in recent years. If  Chris in 2006 had a more favorable atmosphere it would have come in as a hurricane.  Debby in 2000 was close. Georges of 1998, although it came from the south, just missed making landfall on the northeast coast.

We have to reach a little further back, to Kate of 1985 to find a hurricane hitting the northeast coast of Cuba.  But, it was a category two storm.  When was the last major hurricane (category three or higher) to cross that shore-line? Here’s a query of major hurricanes that passed within 200 miles of Ike’s 8 PM forecast point
Lots of those South Florida storms. A few that hit the south-east coast, including a couple that crossed the north-east coast on an out-bound path.  But there’s only one storm that (ever so barely!) made landfall on the north-east coast on an in-bound track.  That was the fourth storm of 1888.

You wouldn’t think a 3oo+ mile long coast-line in the Caribbean would be such a hard target for a major hurricane, but the average steering currents make that the case.  As we have seen, the steering for Ike has been anything but average.

Ike update

First, to fill in the story line from Friday’s post to today:

Ike had a short burst of strengthening yesterday afternoon, the timing of which was unexpected.

Before and After

The strengthening brought Ike up to category four status, where it has remained since.

After striking the Turks and Caicos Islands, Ike wobbled into the Bahamas Island Great Inagua this morning, exposing it to the worst it had to offer.  The next stop is the north-eastern coast of Cuba (Cuba radar).

That means that fortunately, it is not taking the Windward Passage track that the GFDL model was forecasting on Friday.  That keeps Haiti from the worst of the storm, though it is putting rain on a place where every last drop is currently unwelcome.  In his post this morning, Dr Masters recommends a charity that’s focused on aid to Haiti, which is currently tallying 500 dead from Hanna, a number that is sure to rise.

The current track forecast takes Ike over Cuba and then northwest into the Gulf of Mexico.  As mentioned at the end of  the 11 AM forecast discussion, Gulfstream IV flights are providing over-water upper-air data to both the morning and evening global model runs.  Also, the number of daily upper-air observations taken by National Weather Service offices has been doubled.  These actions are intended to help the models get as much data as possible to resolve the question of whether a trough will dig far enough down to turn Ike to the north (similar to how Ivan was turned away from New Orleans in 2004).  In the case of Ike, a northerly turn would be of concern to areas like Mobile and Pensacola.  Should that turn fail to materialize howeve, Ike could get go all the way to Texas.

As far as intensity goes, the short term question is exactly how Ike tracks over Cuba.  If the NHC could absolutely guarantee a 24 hour or longer time-period over Cuba (which is the forecast), the forecast, which currently drops Ike to a minimal hurricane, would probably be even lower, more like a minimal to moderate tropical storm.  However, because a slight deviation to the south would put it over water, the Hurricane Center has to hedge its forecast.

In the longer term, Ike is likely to strengthen once it leaves Cuba, potentially in the fashion of 1979’s Frederic and 1985’s Elena.  Something for Gulf coast residents to monitor throughout the week.

Coming up soon, a look at how rare Ike’s track is.

Ike trying to restrengthen (updated at 11 PM Friday)

(Updates in italics, CAPS indicate a quote from the 11 PM NHC forecast discussion)

At this time two days ago, Hurricane Ike unxepectedly started to strengthen rapidly and peaked with 145 mph winds on Thursday morning.  From then on unfavorable upper-level winds took weakened the storm.  Data from the Hurricane Hunter collected  mid-afternoon supported winds of 115 mph, a minimal category three.  Since then satellite imagery is starting to show an eye again, something that hasn’t been visible today (see infrared loop, also compare this morning with this evening).

THE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC.  SINCE THAT
TIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A
SMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT

Ike still has challenges ahead of it in the short term (next 36-48 hours).  The shear analysis suggests that Ike is in the local minimum as far as shear goes, but is facing an increase as it continues west (although models suggest that’s only true for the next 24 hours or so).   As far as drawing energy from the ocean goes, Hanna’s stay in the area has given Ike a bit of a handicap.  A comparision with heat content a week ago with heat content today indicates that Hanna stole some potential fuel from Ike.  However, loooking further west, there is plenty of heat for Ike to tap into.

THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  SINCE
IKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND
INTERACTION.

These conditions are reflected in the current intensity forecast, which brings Ike down slightly to 110 mph. (That could eliminated in the 11 PM advisory if the satellite imagery continues to suggest strengthening. However, due to the reconnaissance flights focusing on Hanna, we won’t have a plane to verify anything until 2 AM).  (That was the case as satellite estimates were between 115 and 130 mph,  see below) After that, Ike is predicted to get back up to 135 mph winds.

 SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE
ESTIMATES.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE
A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.

(0600 UTC = 2 AM EDT)

The wildcard in that is Ike’s track, with the $64 question being whether the storm goes over Cuba.  The current forecast (5 PM)says no.  The dynamic model guidance from this afternoon, (which shows a suspicious amount of agreement at the 5 day point), shows most models saying no, with the GFDL being a notable exception.  The most recent GFDL run is even further south, taking Ike through the Windward Passage, over Gitmo, around the southern coast of Cuba, then turning northwest and crossing the island in a manner similar to Gustav. The most recent HWRF run is also further south.  This should cause the official forecast to have a slight adjustment to the south as well (and it did, once again see below as well as the current forecast).

THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

These southward adjustments are the last thing anyone would want to see for Haiti.  While the U.S. has had a run of landfalls, suffering from the storms has been trivial to what has happened in Haiti.

For those in the Keys, especially the lower ones , it is the time to have a plan for leaving (moreso than I  realized, tourists are ordered to leave by 8 AM tomorrow and residents are ordered to leave on Sunday).  At this point it appears that whether it’s through the front door (from the east) or through the back (via Cuba) Ike will have some affect, possibly severe, come Tuesday.

Looking beyond that, it’s a concern for the eastern half of the Gulf Coast.

When I started to write this post at 7:30 pm or so I started with the title “Ike is strengthening” but by 8:30 I revised it.  While an eye was briefly visible, it disappeared again.  Also, convection had increased in area, but has since shrunk somewhat. At this point I would expect the Hurricane Hunters to find no change in strength and as such for the 5 am advisory to continue to indicate 115 mph.

Obligations will keep me away from the computer until evening hours tomorrow.

The tropical threesome

For residents of the southeast, the situation continues to look better with regards to Hanna.  Unfavorable upper-level winds are making life miserable for the storm as it sits just north of Hispanola.  Maximum sustained winds are down to 65 mph and I strongly suspect they will be even lower come the 5 AM advisory as the satellite appearence is terrible.

The NHC forecast is for the hostile conditions to subside and Hanna to regain hurricane strength as it crosses the Gulf Stream and heads towards the Georgia/South Carolina border.  Given current circumstances the intensity forecast may be a bit overdone and require adjustment downward.  Also looking at the GFS model that just came out (enhanced with upper-air data collected by the Gulfstream IV), it looks like the forecast landfall point will be shifted the north somewhat more towards North Carolina.  As the NHC discussions point out, though, one should focus more on the general idea than an exact landfall point as a small variation in storm heading shifts the landfall point substantially.

I’m not expecting much out of Hanna at this point.  Once it starts moving and nears land, its forward speed will be sufficient to keep rainfall totals from being especially exorbitant and the wind speeds should be more of a nuisance than a destructive force.

1500 miles to the east of Hanna is Tropical Storm Ike, which continues to be the forecaster’s friend so far as having a predictable track goes.  The Bahamas may take less of a liking to it as it could be the worst storm to affect the islands since Andrew.  The $64 question of the moment is the favorability of upper-level winds when Ike starts to pass north of the Antilles.  Favorable conditions would allow it to strengthen to a major hurricane (as forecast by the GFDL and HWRF models).  Unfavorable conditions, akin to what is plaguing Hanna right now, would put Ike much weaker. SHIPS, guided by the GFS, expects an inhospitable atmosphere to push Ike back down to tropical storm strength (with Ike availing itself of favorable conditions to get to a category one hurricane before the going gets rough).  The official forecast splits the difference.

Way out to the east/southeast of Ike is Josephine.  The forecast track puts it in a position where it is climatologically unlikely to affect the United States.  As such it will receive minimal attention for the time-being.

Quote of the day

This gave me a chuckle:

“In this market, you need a meteorology degree to trade,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer, Harris Private Bank. (MarketWatch)

The CIO is referring to the drop oil prices took today after expectations of Gustav disrupting oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico failed to pan out.

Back when Dolly formed, I commented to a co-worker “Yep, nothing like a storm in the Gulf to rally oil prices.” As was the case this time around, the rally was short-lived.

A few posts back I mentioned annoyance at people in the broadcast media talking up the probabilities of Gustav becoming a category five.  One of those people was on via the business side of one of the news networks (I believe it was Fox). I was waiting for a blurb to come up saying THIS TRADER IS GETTING HIS FACE RIPPED OFF IN THE COMMODITIES MARKET AND BADLY NEEDS OIL TO RALLY.  Alas, viewers received no such enlightenment.

A brief moment of panic

The top headline on the National Hurricane Center website made me think we had gone into 1995 territory:

Seeing four names in consecutive alphabetical order caused me to ever so briefly think that we had four storms in the Atlantic.  However, my mind quickly registered that the last two was both female… and so yeah, Karina is in the Pacific.