Tropical Storm Ernesto update 281500L

After the 5 AM advisory was released, the hurricane hunter flew into the northeast quadrant of Ernesto and found that winds were a little bit lower than supposed, because of that his strength was lowered to 40 mph at the 11 AM advisory. The plane stayed in the area making numerous fixes of the center as Ernesto went ashore in Cuba just after 7 AM.

A plane is now flying around the northern coast of Cuba waiting for Ernesto to go feet wet again. (It won’t fly into the center as long as it’s over land). The observations it has collected up to this point show that Ernesto has mantained his strength up to this point.

Without the fixes from the plane, the NHC estimated the 11 AM and 2 PM positions using satellite imagery, which is always a bit tricky when the storm isn’t a full fledged hurricane (when the presence of an eye makes the task simple). That has proven to especially be the case with Ernesto, so one should treat those positions with some uncertainty until Ernesto is over water again.

As always, refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Ernesto.